Market Harmony wrote:Long ago, I made a vow to never openly speculate on the price of PM's. (That's it, just a one sentence paragraph)
Today, I am spouting off to the world (ok, just realcent forumites) that I currently hold the conviction that a strong, fast, and sudden rebound to higher gold and silver prices now has a favorable probability of happening, and happening soon. By "soon" I mean by the end of trading of next week (Friday, Oct 17), and by "strong, fast, and sudden" I mean a 10+% move higher in 2 days, and it could be as high as a 20% jump in price in less than 4 days. "Favorable probability" means greater than 50%.
This, to me, mean that dry powder should be at a minimum. A stop loss, with a close tie to recent lows, is prudent but low on the probability of happening; yet, can still occur under situations of unusual strength in the US Dollar .
So, there it is. Free advice from a pro. Perhaps it will hang me, perhaps it will help you.
Rodebaugh wrote::wave:
(that about sums it up)
beauanderos wrote:oooh, a teensy masochistic part of me wishes JFF was still here. He'd be all "I told you so, I told you so," showing complex graphs
of multi-colored lined diagrams that he wouldn't explain... although...somehow... he had mysteriously failed to anticipate the entire downward
move, all the while predicting a soon-to-be 100 to 400% catapult to higher prices
Nice move so far. Good call, Mike. Let's hope it keeps up
Rodebaugh wrote:beauanderos wrote:oooh, a teensy masochistic part of me wishes JFF was still here. He'd be all "I told you so, I told you so," showing complex graphs
of multi-colored lined diagrams that he wouldn't explain... although...somehow... he had mysteriously failed to anticipate the entire downward
move, all the while predicting a soon-to-be 100 to 400% catapult to higher prices
Nice move so far. Good call, Mike. Let's hope it keeps up
Quit doing hand stands Ray .....you're reading the chart wrong. We are down for the day, but we have until Oct 17th.
Engineer wrote:Last time I sold a house was in August 2008. I was sweating bullets watching the market crash while it was in escrow.
I have another house set to close the end of the month.
Market Harmony wrote:
So, there it is. Free advice from a pro. Perhaps it will hang me, perhaps it will help you.
68Camaro wrote:
For me the stakes are huge and I would rather be wrong on timing, lose out on some short term profit, but be right on concept and hold my assets.
christostock wrote:Curious Mike,
Why did you make your prediction?
Market Harmony wrote:christostock wrote:Curious Mike,
Why did you make your prediction?
Seemed to me, after years of watching this market and participating, that I might be aware of the beginning stages of moves up or down. Sentiment being one of the most accurate along with regular business activity being a close second... Many people have been coming into the shop capitulating and many others coming in to back up the truck. When my volumes are up, it is typically at peaks and troughs of the market. I was witnessing this recently and attempted to extrapolate high-probability potential moves based on these past experiences... I had the direction correct, just not the magnitude within a certain timeframe.
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