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The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2025 8:24 am
by Cu Penny Hoarder
It's starting to mirror what was going on in 1979-80.

LOTS of pre'33 and 90% is being melted now and becoming more and more rare.

Hold onto everything you have.

Sell your house, your car, your kids, but do NOT sell your PMs. The sellers remorse is going to be HUGE.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2025 10:37 am
by thecrazyone
Sorry for my misunderstanding, but are you saying this bc:

1. The PM values will actually go higher and these people will miss out on that? Or
2. Their melting will make pre 33 coinage increase in numismatic value?

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2025 12:58 pm
by Cu Penny Hoarder
thecrazyone wrote:Sorry for my misunderstanding, but are you saying this bc:

1. The PM values will actually go higher and these people will miss out on that? Or
2. Their melting will make pre 33 coinage increase in numismatic value?


Both.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2025 2:09 pm
by thecrazyone
All great info, it just stinks that there is no way to know how many coins for a given year still exist. And noone is going to come forward and say they have a bag of 1916-D Mercury dimes.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2025 1:19 am
by Recyclersteve
thecrazyone wrote:All great info, it just stinks that there is no way to know how many coins for a given year still exist. And noone is going to come forward and say they have a bag of 1916-D Mercury dimes.


It depends on how you look at it. There are plenty of very wealthy people who would love to be able to say they have something that could potentially be unique or nearly unique. So the competition between rich people with big egos could send the price into the stratosphere at auction.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2025 6:58 am
by thecrazyone
Recyclersteve wrote:
thecrazyone wrote:All great info, it just stinks that there is no way to know how many coins for a given year still exist. And noone is going to come forward and say they have a bag of 1916-D Mercury dimes.


It depends on how you look at it. There are plenty of very wealthy people who would love to be able to say they have something that could potentially be unique or nearly unique. So the competition between rich people with big egos could send the price into the stratosphere at auction.


Good point! If you have a bag of those dimes lying around, I just need one of the dimes :D

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2025 9:01 pm
by neilgin1
Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:It's starting to mirror what was going on in 1979-80.

LOTS of pre'33 and 90% is being melted now and becoming more and more rare.

Hold onto everything you have.

Sell your house, your car, your kids, but do NOT sell your PMs. The sellers remorse is going to be HUGE.


Dear brother Penny, and to the rest of the gang, hoping ya'll are safe and well fed!!

oh boy, i had to chime in with a big AMEN to yer OP....during the original 79-80 melt, i was in a windowless room, 50 clicks south of the ROK DMZ, fluent in Korean, listening to those miserable NorKo commie phucks....so i had no idea what was going on....it was YOU GUYS who told me about the last 'big melt"....you guys, and for all that i learned on this forum, i will forever be grateful.

the current melt is on again, and the reason i 'know' is that i watch the pm dealers on yootoob, and since i know what to listen for...its on.....cryptic references to sending to the smelters, when the idiot grandsons..or sons, who have NO IDEA what their grandfather's saved/collected/curated for them.....then traipse over to their LCS to dishonor their elders wisdom by just dumping against the crimex board that has 387 paper claims against 1 physical.........these LCS are getting swamped with 90's, which they mutter, "going to the smelter" ...imho, the only guy i like is old man Tim M, up in new hampshire.....Yankee stacking?......Tim's a great listen, i aint driving to NH....what i have been doing is this, i live deep rural...and as yall see how batshit crazy urban areas in OUR country have been getting, it wasnt by accident brothers...sorry going off track, so for 20 plus years i been stacking via ebay......

i know....i know.....i can hear what you all are thinking, but noooo, i never got jammed or scammed once, Thank You LORD!...and i was always careful, only 99.9% fav's, i read everything about the item and seller was potentially going to be doing business with, no problems, but this is 2025, so when i find the one guy with 10 face rolls of blast white early 50's Wash's BU's, i'm all in....check the population counts.....and we dont even know they're solid!!...the counts, guy has beautiful coins, and i LOVE the Washingtons, by golly! One, its George Washington, and even though they are .18 toz ag, round em to say a fifth of an ounce, so its fractionalized...to button this this all, lemme tell what a roll of 55d wash sold for today, and it wasnt my bid, i bought 55's years ago...coz its a unicorn........68.8 times face,$688 that roll of 55d Wash's traded at..today......is that evidence of another sad melt?.......i dunno, but guys are paying up for sleek rolls of Constitutional's, thats for sure..Bless you all, n.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2025 6:28 am
by Cu Penny Hoarder
Neil, Long time no see. You need to post here more often.

Almost every LCS I deal with is sending more of these historic coins to get burned. Almost everything that is not slabbed is getting smelted. Very sad.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2025 7:41 am
by 68Camaro
Trying to understand the phenomenon of today, which would be different than the Hunt Bros run-up. You're saying that LCS are able to buy for less than melt, and are unable to sell to other than scrappers for melt or above? That seems crazy. There has to be a floor to this; the world isn't full of inherited silver owned by ill informed millennials trying to pay for their latest smartphone.

Edit: follow up: with a little more time to look at an example, I checked JM Bullion on-line offerings of 90%. Most focused half lots are sold out. Some larger mixed face lots are available at about 28x face +/-. It doesn't look like they are having issues with selling, so I'm not sure why a LCS would sell 90% as scrap to a melter.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2025 11:21 am
by Cu Penny Hoarder
68Camaro wrote:Trying to understand the phenomenon of today, which would be different than the Hunt Bros run-up. You're saying that LCS are able to buy for less than melt, and are unable to sell to other than scrappers for melt or above? That seems crazy. There has to be a floor to this; the world isn't full of inherited silver owned by ill informed millennials trying to pay for their latest smartphone.

Edit: follow up: with a little more time to look at an example, I checked JM Bullion on-line offerings of 90%. Most focused half lots are sold out. Some larger mixed face lots are available at about 28x face +/-. It doesn't look like they are having issues with selling, so I'm not sure why a LCS would sell 90% as scrap to a melter.


When LCS' get overloaded they want to turn it over fast for profit. Churn and burn. The guy in Spring Hill FL talks about this all the time... 90% sellers, 10% buyers. My local LCS' do not make YT videos.

The big internet bullion dealers tend to hedge and can afford to sit on it and wait till some dumb shmuck come along and pays their exorbitant premiums.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Tue Aug 19, 2025 7:36 am
by silverflake
Neil! Good to hear from you! Stay safe brutha!

As far as melting, yeah I heard about the early 80's Big Melt (there's a book about it, someone on this board owns it, by Merton? I think?) but I have to admit I haven't been paying attention to a current melting situation. New info to me.

90% constitutional silver was my bread and butter when I first was attracted to the shiny stuff. At first I used to pull it from my change when I had my paper route in the early 80's (yes, I could still pull silver from change in the early 80's, mostly dimes but silver nonetheless). I still have every dime quarter and half dollar I pulled (and yes, people would actually use half dollars to pay me). As a side note, I also pulled a number of silver certificates during my career delivering papers. Not much value but pretty cool.

I will keep an eye on this board to stay informed about the newest melt.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Tue Aug 19, 2025 7:45 am
by Cu Penny Hoarder
silverflake wrote:
90% constitutional silver was my bread and butter when I first was attracted to the shiny stuff. At first I used to pull it from my change when I had my paper route in the early 80's (yes, I could still pull silver from change in the early 80's, mostly dimes but silver nonetheless). I still have every dime quarter and half dollar I pulled (and yes, people would actually use half dollars to pay me). As a side note, I also pulled a number of silver certificates during my career delivering papers. Not much value but pretty cool.

I will keep an eye on this board to stay informed about the newest melt.


In the 70's and 80's I pulled a lot of 90% from my change and my relatives change jugs. JFK 90% and 40% was plentiful back then... got lots from banks too. Bank boxes are not worth the effort for me today, but some people still get lucky.

About 2 months ago I got a 1945 quarter in my change from a self-checkout at my local Acme market... XF condition too. Made my day.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2025 10:53 am
by Cu Penny Hoarder
Here is more interesting insight from the LCS guy in Spring Hill FL. I don't agree with all of it, but hey.

Insight/info starts at 9:17 minutes in...

https://youtu.be/BDMr5DD_uGg

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2025 1:59 pm
by mtalbot_ca
Thanks for sharing.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2025 4:07 pm
by Cu Penny Hoarder
My 2 cents about why/how there is such a glut of silver sellers right now.

All the FOMO buyers who bought in the 2010/2011 rally are now dumping everything. They most likely bought in the high $30's and $40's and just want to get even.

Do not sell! Silver is going much higher. However, I'm hoping it takes a break and consolidates for a while, at least a couple weeks.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2025 4:41 pm
by 68Camaro
Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:My 2 cents about why/how there is such a glut of silver sellers right now.

All the FOMO buyers who bought in the 2010/2011 rally are now dumping everything. They most likely bought in the high $30's and $40's and just want to get even.

Do not sell! Silver is going much higher. However, I'm hoping it takes a break and consolidates for a while, at least a couple weeks.


There is probably a lot of that. I am almost one of those FOMO folks, but not really. I had started into silver a few years earlier, but at a low, low level. As time went by I became increasingly convicted that I needed a significant store of physical metal, but for a variety of reasons my timing sucked, so I was just spinning up in my buys as the price started to ramp up. I felt the world economy was on the brink of disaster (and it was, almost) and I needed to convert FRNs to toz, at whatever price. So I paid some high prices for some of my silver in 2012. There was pain as the disaster was averted and the price went down, down, down. But... I still believed in the cause, and was convinced I was and would be ultimately found to be right. So I continued to buy, and doubled down when the price got back to the teens. So I succeeded in dropping my DCA price way down, and I won't be selling anything until I see a higher price than we have now, and even then it will just be items that I personally consider less desirable, and / or possible trading from that position to a newly preferred position (like gold, maybe).

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Mon Sep 29, 2025 8:52 pm
by 68Camaro
Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:Here is more interesting insight from the LCS guy in Spring Hill FL. I don't agree with all of it, but hey.

Insight/info starts at 9:17 minutes in...

https://youtu.be/BDMr5DD_uGg


I happened upon his link in the YouTube offerings, I suppose because it remembers that I watched the last one you posted. 2 minor things struck me:1) the 90% he had in his bin was crap, worn thin. No wonder he was only paying spot - $2.75; 2) the smelters / refiners are so full of metal at the moment that some have suspended incoming shipments because they are backlogged on what they can process with the equipment and people that they have.

This tells me a) that a lot of the best 90% is being held with tight hands, and b) the backlog is a moment in time that will clear out when the supply tapers off, even though each new 5 or 10 dollar price increment will bring out more silver, each cycle will see less and less recycle metal coming in. Eventually - perhaps - we will reach the true price discovery point, where we will find out what silver is really valued at for the need. I tend to think we will be at 3 digit dollars by that point.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2025 7:10 pm
by Cu Penny Hoarder
68Camaro wrote:
Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:Here is more interesting insight from the LCS guy in Spring Hill FL. I don't agree with all of it, but hey.

Insight/info starts at 9:17 minutes in...

https://youtu.be/BDMr5DD_uGg


I happened upon his link in the YouTube offerings, I suppose because it remembers that I watched the last one you posted. 2 minor things struck me:1) the 90% he had in his bin was crap, worn thin. No wonder he was only paying spot - $2.75; 2) the smelters / refiners are so full of metal at the moment that some have suspended incoming shipments because they are backlogged on what they can process with the equipment and people that they have.


The guy in Spring Hill is a churn and burn operation. He simply sells what he buys from customers and doesn't keep anything unless it is slabbed MS63+. If/when they get overwhelmed with inventory, they burn it to keep the cash flow moving.

68Camaro wrote:This tells me a) that a lot of the best 90% is being held with tight hands, and b) the backlog is a moment in time that will clear out when the supply tapers off, even though each new 5 or 10 dollar price increment will bring out more silver, each cycle will see less and less recycle metal coming in. Eventually - perhaps - we will reach the true price discovery point, where we will find out what silver is really valued at for the need. I tend to think we will be at 3 digit dollars by that point.


A) People like us will hold tight, but there are a lot of desperate souls out there right now trying to make ends meet. They are selling PMs to pay bills, buy RE or crypto (which IMO is going to financially destroy many ppl in years to come).
B) Totally agree.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2025 9:57 pm
by JerrySpringer
Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:It's starting to mirror what was going on in 1979-80.

LOTS of pre'33 and 90% is being melted now and becoming more and more rare.



I was thinking the other day, the Hunt brothers are to blame maybe for the lack of silver in coin rolls in the years gone by. Probably obvious to everyone but I never really thought about the what ifs. Had silver never gone parabolic in 1980, maybe most would have just ignored it all the same, but we cannot change history. All the 90% coins would have been sitting in bank bags and people's change jars that much longer. Fast forward to now, and we have a third-place runner up of copper cents still being available if nothing else other than 3.2 x face value just does not entice people to hoard them yet.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2025 3:27 pm
by Cu Penny Hoarder
JerrySpringer wrote:
Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:It's starting to mirror what was going on in 1979-80.

LOTS of pre'33 and 90% is being melted now and becoming more and more rare.



I was thinking the other day, the Hunt brothers are to blame maybe for the lack of silver in coin rolls in the years gone by. Probably obvious to everyone but I never really thought about the what ifs. Had silver never gone parabolic in 1980, maybe most would have just ignored it all the same, but we cannot change history. All the 90% coins would have been sitting in bank bags and people's change jars that much longer. Fast forward to now, and we have a third-place runner up of copper cents still being available if nothing else other than 3.2 x face value just does not entice people to hoard them yet.


That's an interesting thought. I know my uncle (RIP) was hoarding 90% in late 1979 because of what Hunt's were doing. I inherited all that silver when my aunt sold her house last year.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2025 6:17 pm
by thecrazyone
Nice!

I saw shinnosuke say in another post that pm's do not leave his family. I really like that mentality and am planning to do the same.

Re: The Big Melt of 2025

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2025 9:05 pm
by shinnosuke
thecrazyone wrote:Nice!

I saw shinnosuke say in another post that pm's do not leave his family. I really like that mentality and am planning to do the same.


That's right.We are the black hole of precious metal accumulation. What goes in has never gone out. You know the abyss into which Gandalf fell from the Bridge of Khazad-dûm, you know, in the Mines of Moria? That place is a shallow rain puddle compared to how deeply our PMs are hidden. The only big thing that melts at my house is chunks of Red Feather butter on waffles.