Your Ideal Scenario For Silver Above $30 An Oz.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Just to be Devils advocate . . .

A GSR of about 50 is reasonable. That gets you close to $50 today.

I think in 2011 the GSR got as low as 38. That gets you to $63.

GSR is curreently around 76. It might get to 50. I don't expect it to go to 38 let alone 15 or 7. In 2011 you had the ETF come on line I think. 2011 levels are possible but not likely imho.

There is no formula that makes any sense because TPTB are still in full control of the prices. They just keep selling contracts for metal that does not exist. Prices gets slammed down over and over again. It's criminal. It's 9:30pm and silver is trading back down to $30.50 as I am typing this.

[Lemon Thrower]

I don't disagree about TPTB. Where I disagree with most of you is that the manipulation is a reason to exit silver, not enter silver. YMMV.

[Recyclersteve]

It seems like the $50ish level represents serious resistance. Imagine if silver breaks solidly above, say, $55-57 or so. It could really run. I wouldn’t want to be short silver in any form (including the SLV exchange traded fund).

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

I don't disagree about TPTB. Where I disagree with most of you is that the manipulation is a reason to exit silver, not enter silver. YMMV.

The only time I ever sold any of my Ag was in 2011. I sold a 90% $500FV bag I bought in the late 80's. Ag was $45oz when I sold it.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

It seems like the $50ish level represents serious resistance. Imagine if silver breaks solidly above, say, $55-57 or so. It could really run. I wouldn’t want to be short silver in any form (including the SLV exchange traded fund).

It will get there someday, but it won't suddenly shoot to the moon. Too much manipulation for that to happen so fast. Also, the faster the price moves up, the less likely it will hold that level.

Since 2020 the TPTB have done a fine job at capping silver at $30. The price has been creeping up, but they'll manage any sudden prices increases with every tool they have, including huge margin increases to scare out the longs and force them to sell their paper. This is the main reason why holding the physical is so important.

[Lemon Thrower]

Franklin Sanders says that $30 is the new floor. ymmv

[neilgin1]

...
Unless we have a total market/USD collapse, the $50 level is probably going to be a tough resistance point to break out of.

The price right now is being driven by China, not the US markets. China (SFE/SGE) is currently paying $4+ premium over the West's spot price. As long as they maintain that pace of buying (a >10% premium over the West), silver should continue to rise.

The COMEX and LBMA criminals are still doing their best to knock the price down everyday.

Dear Penny, this is a great thread...underline the word "criminals"...over the past 44 years, i have come to the heartbreaking realization, that EVERY institution we were brought up to trust, is wholly corrupt and lacking any moral authority....my soul is a cold blue flame. respect to all you men, n

[neilgin1]

Just to be Devils advocate . . .

A GSR of about 50 is reasonable. That gets you close to $50 today.

I think in 2011 the GSR got as low as 38. That gets you to $63.

GSR is curreently around 76. It might get to 50. I don't expect it to go to 38 let alone 15 or 7. In 2011 you had the ETF come on line I think. 2011 levels are possible but not likely imho.

There is no formula that makes any sense because TPTB are still in full control of the prices. They just keep selling contracts for metal that does not exist. Prices gets slammed down over and over again. It's criminal. It's 9:30pm and silver is trading back down to $30.50 as I am typing this.

Good bro Penny......right now there are 397 paper silver "claims" (futures contracts) against ONE for real physical contract (5 1000 toz "loafs")..aint that lovely?....just another small point i gotta make, i'd rather gargle with drano than sell any Ag, 90's, trip or quad 9's (.999 eagles, 9999 Mape's) than 'sell' them for those s+h green stamp coupons we call dollars...in fact over 20 years of stacking, i have not sold one toz of Ag.

"why not, you moron, neil?"

well, its my hybrid "annuity" in case of emergency, break glass, and barter.

"barter?....are you off your med's neil?"

nope, i went to ground a few decades ago, live on a gravel road, and in the 30 mile radius of this ranch, there are numerous cattle, pig, chicken ranches, and MANY vegetable farms, plus it doesnt hurt when you know everybody....serious, there's a storm coming boys, brace, and may the Favor of God be upon you, with love, n

[neilgin1]

Agree again that $50 silver might present a challenge, unless it happens simultaneously with a USD crash from say 100 to 80 (or less).

I was a "2011 FOMO buyer" that continued to buy into the 40s. Hindsight is 20/20 but at the time I was concerned (for good reason) that the entire global economy was going to crash, and that I hadn't bought enough silver when it was cheaper. I had too much (I thought) in cash and securities and not enough PMs. I did what I did for good reason but bought too much over-expensive silver; should have bought less of it at the time and bought more of something else stable (perhaps gold). So I spent the next 10 years buying cheap silver at 11 to 18 to DCA my average price down to something sustainable as prices readjusted. I finally got my silver portfolio above water 3 years ago. I did stay the course and remained with my convictions that it was a good item to have, so bought large quantities in the low to mid teens, even though I was badly underwater for a few years. It has worked out in the end; fortunately I had the time to do it.

my dear friend 68,
i was right alongside of you in 2011, slash and burn buying, but since i was slash and burning since 04, buying BURNISHED rolls(low pops) of ASE's at 300, and gem bu 10 face 90s at 11-12 times, in that powerful up move, i was buying, because when you're position trading, (pyramiding) i had NO interest in market timing, plus that up move was the result of the tomchicanery of the 08 subprime meltdown, and the subsequent bail out of the very same criminals that crashed the economy, their crimes were getting away from them, and that showed up in the Ag up move.

i remember reading an article in the alt finance press about a mid size hedge fund ($500 mln) who was buying comex ag, and indicating they were going to stand for PHYSICAL delivery, and this sent shock waves thru the whole rotten criminal enterprise...the hedge fund got a "make you an offer you cant refuse" letter, and it said, i'm paraphrasing, "we will settle with you for $50 a toz, CASH, no Ag, and if you refuse, we will force majuere, and you mr hedge fund will be LAST in line of unsecured creditors".

the hedge fund took the FRN's, and never came back, and that was 13 years ago.....if you told me 13 years ago, what the national and global world would be like in 2024?

i would think it was a nightmare i had during my sleep. your friend, n

[TXSTARFIRE]

Good to see you post again Neil!

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Good to see you post again Neil!

Yes, I was about to say the same thing.

[Morsecode]

Good to see you post again Neil!

Yes, I was about to say the same thing.

[neilgin1]

Good to see you post again Neil!

Starfire, Penny and Morse, oh boy, what a good way to wake up, with such a nice welcome. Serious, along with this Navy tar black coffee, it sure warms my heart.

i best get back to the thread, but before i do, i noticed we all came aboard the USS Realcent in 2011. Hmmm, i'm pondering on 2011, based also on what 68Cam said.

2011. Our eyes were opened to the lengths that the pharoahs will go to, to keep their wicked game a-going.

as far as the board is concerned, rather than flat price, i'm watching the spreads, and whats different and kinda neat is this...take crude oil, in a up config, front month trades at a premium, right?....but in the Au and Ag futures it's the opposite, and i'm seeing a real discount, front to back's, which is bullish......which is obvious, but i got two worries, one i been screeching about forever:
Someday, maybe sooner, maybe later, the pharaohs will proclaim Ag a "vital national security material", which means no private ownership, they'll "fix" a price at XYZ in frn's..with Constitutional 90%'ers, they'll bone on a 50% surcharge if you trade rolls, coins on the white market...is that a "prediction"?...a fer certain?....i dont know, but it worries and gnaws at me.

second thing , this whole casino culture market is shakier than a drunk in Church, just the other day Berkshire Hath, a 262,000 sheer, opens at 191.00, due to a computer "glitch"....you got some KID, squeezing the shorts in a "meme" stock...Gamestop, makes 76 mil, which is great...but that aint a grown up people stock, like ExxonMobil, or Walmartz...know what i mean?....sooo, what if we get some big fugly "event"?.....they'll close all markets, force majuere.

but coins?...love stacking, coz thats SAVING......trip 9's , quad 9's, 90's and 40's, 95% copper pennies, bricks of nickels....heck, i even pitch ALL post 65 clads in coffee cans.

Saving....glad to be back.

[silverflake]

I can never resist posting when I see Neil back in the threads! Howdy Neil, hope all is well!

As far as silver scenario I will just parrot what most of you are saying. Yes I bought Ag eagles in 2011 at $45, but I bought 'em in 2002 at $7. I bought them again in since 2011. GONE are the days when I care about the number of wood pulp green backs it takes to trade for the shiny metal. Just keep trading those federal reserve notes in for metal (sounds better saying it that way than saying I am "buying" metal).

Just keep stacking guys. I mean what else is there as a better alternative other than maybe a nice piece of land. Stack.

Best group on the internet. And welcome back Neil!

[neilgin1]

I can never resist posting when I see Neil back in the threads! Howdy Neil, hope all is well!

As far as silver scenario I will just parrot what most of you are saying. Yes I bought Ag eagles in 2011 at $45, but I bought 'em in 2002 at $7. I bought them again in since 2011. GONE are the days when I care about the number of wood pulp green backs it takes to trade for the shiny metal. Just keep trading those federal reserve notes in for metal (sounds better saying it that way than saying I am "buying" metal).

Just keep stacking guys. I mean what else is there as a better alternative other than maybe a nice piece of land. Stack.

Best group on the internet. And welcome back Neil!

Yeh buddy Silver! t'ank you for the welcome back, and lemme amen you're declarative "Best group on the internet"...indeed, i dont do any of that twitter, instagram. tik-tok, blik blok social media stuff, and the other trading forum i was on 20 years, was canted towards ALL futures, and oh my, the beefs and feuds and drama?.....and the other forum i used to post was a Christian discussion forum, which breaks my heart to write, devolved into a turgid mess of theological cyber scrums..this forum? it's like we're sitting around the firepit at dusk, just shooting the breeze, and that is one of my favorite things to do.

your "wood pulp" line cracked me up.

i gotta a couple cheese burgers calling my name, much respect, neil

[bankmining]

One good day and then TPTB have to monkey hammer down in time for the weekend.

[68Camaro]

Agree again that $50 silver might present a challenge, unless it happens simultaneously with a USD crash from say 100 to 80 (or less).

I was a "2011 FOMO buyer" that continued to buy into the 40s. Hindsight is 20/20 but at the time I was concerned (for good reason) that the entire global economy was going to crash, and that I hadn't bought enough silver when it was cheaper. I had too much (I thought) in cash and securities and not enough PMs. I did what I did for good reason but bought too much over-expensive silver; should have bought less of it at the time and bought more of something else stable (perhaps gold). So I spent the next 10 years buying cheap silver at 11 to 18 to DCA my average price down to something sustainable as prices readjusted. I finally got my silver portfolio above water 3 years ago. I did stay the course and remained with my convictions that it was a good item to have, so bought large quantities in the low to mid teens, even though I was badly underwater for a few years. It has worked out in the end; fortunately I had the time to do it.

my dear friend 68,
i was right alongside of you in 2011, slash and burn buying, but since i was slash and burning since 04, buying BURNISHED rolls(low pops) of ASE's at 300, and gem bu 10 face 90s at 11-12 times, in that powerful up move, i was buying, because when you're position trading, (pyramiding) i had NO interest in market timing, plus that up move was the result of the tomchicanery of the 08 subprime meltdown, and the subsequent bail out of the very same criminals that crashed the economy, their crimes were getting away from them, and that showed up in the Ag up move.

i remember reading an article in the alt finance press about a mid size hedge fund ($500 mln) who was buying comex ag, and indicating they were going to stand for PHYSICAL delivery, and this sent shock waves thru the whole rotten criminal enterprise...the hedge fund got a "make you an offer you cant refuse" letter, and it said, i'm paraphrasing, "we will settle with you for $50 a toz, CASH, no Ag, and if you refuse, we will force majuere, and you mr hedge fund will be LAST in line of unsecured creditors".

the hedge fund took the FRN's, and never came back, and that was 13 years ago.....if you told me 13 years ago, what the national and global world would be like in 2024?

i would think it was a nightmare i had during my sleep. your friend, n
...

Neil, I agree with your reply to another that - at its best - RC is rather like sitting around a campfire sharing stories with good friends. As to my prediction of the future for PMs, there are so many possible derivative scenarios that I can't yet pick a most plausible path for how it plays out, and yet I believe the methods and objectives to prepare for what is to come are largely the same, at least if one starts those preps enough in advance so that the timing of completion of the parts of the preparations doesn't matter much.

I "wargame" future scenarios in my head constantly, but I haven't figured out (or had it providentially shown to me) what will happen next. The wildcard in this is Trump - he is the prime disrupting force to TPTB, and they gnashing their teeth over the possibility that he might be reelected. This is a Mr. Obvious statement, but if he loses the world goes down one path, if he wins we all go down a second completely different path - and those options are what happens regardless of what you think of the man. I think one has to wargame each of those two paths independently, and I'm still sorting those out, which for me is problematic because it requires trying to predict the decisions of crazy people (lol)t. For both of those paths, what do the major players each do, including (in no particular order):

- Radical left in all of its elements
- uniparty perma-DC insiders (Moderate Dems and RINOs)
- tea party ish conservatives
- Putin and Ukraine
- CCP and Taiwan
- Iran and its proxies
- Turkey
- unnamed others

I have to let this percolate...

[Recyclersteve]

Welcome back Neil!

[neilgin1]

Welcome back Neil!

Good to be back Steve.....how's trade?....how about that kooky kid in that kooky gamestop mess?......jeez louise, huh?