Realcent.org

doug444 wrote:Here's a chart I'd like to see -- the price changes for industrial metals, percentage-wise, over the past 5 years; all in one chart, aluminum, copper, zinc, nickel, chromium, iron. I couldn't find such a chart with Google, but I quit after 10 minutes. Now add the price of oil (WTI) in a different color, and see if oil prices are a good predictor of copper (and other) prices.

Even if oil's price was a good predictor relative to copper over the past five years, what about the last one, three, ten and twenty years? By assuming that something that worked once will always work, you will suffer the perils of those who use small sample sizes.

It is just like some stock enthusiast who touts something like a high volume breakout being significant and shows you a chart of a stock that legitimately doubled after a high volume breakout. I find myself thinking, "Ok, so it worked for that one stock, but I'd like to see an exhaustive study of at least several hundred."

I will amend my previous post to include a desire to see similar charts for umm, 1, 3, 10, and 20 years. Problem solved. But there is scant connection between stock charts and tabulated historical (commodity) prices. Such prices are generally not event-driven, they are trend-driven. On a buyout offer, a stock can triple overnight; you don't see this with goods like (for instance) metals, chemicals, and grains. A typhoon passing across Burma, Thailand, and Vietnam might cause a spike in the price of bulk rice, but the marketplace reacts in a logical fashion, flooding the affected areas with product, and the spike has a high decay rate. Some recent exceptions to this theory might be coffee, tungsten, and tantalum.

doug444 wrote:Here's a chart I'd like to see -- the price changes for industrial metals, percentage-wise, over the past 5 years; all in one chart, aluminum, copper, zinc, nickel, chromium, iron. I couldn't find such a chart with Google, but I quit after 10 minutes. Now add the price of oil (WTI) in a different color, and see if oil prices are a good predictor of copper (and other) prices.

you might be better off looking at ratios charts such as the gold/silver ratio. There at several mentioned at various times on different threads here but you might search "ratio" and see what comes up. Just a suggestion if you are looking for entry and sell points for different markets.

doug444 wrote:Here's a chart I'd like to see -- the price changes for industrial metals, percentage-wise, over the past 5 years; all in one chart, aluminum, copper, zinc, nickel, chromium, iron. I couldn't find such a chart with Google, but I quit after 10 minutes. Now add the price of oil (WTI) in a different color, and see if oil prices are a good predictor of copper (and other) prices.

Your wish is (sort of) my command! This is as close as I could get:

http://www.usfunds.com/interactive/the- ... urns-2016/

Shaz

Nice chart! Thanks