Generational Theory

[68Camaro]

While certain aspects of Generational Theory have permeated news over the past few years (such as the name "Millenial" itself), it was only in the past few weeks that I realized there was a larger theory behind some of the generational descriptions, so I spent some time digging into it. Generational Theory notionally breaks down a lifetime into generations into ~20 year periods with 4 ~5 year sub-periods, and assigns each birth generation a role under an overall societal cycle of ~80 year repeating "natural centuries". Each generation has a notional overall personality and each also matures over its lifetime, creating an overall rhythm to time. The observations seem to have some merit for the population sizes of 60-75 million people for a given generation, but of course can't be applied to individuals except as a guide to a norm. It seems to correspond roughly to a Myers-Briggs personality type indicator for an individual (along with the maturity of that type over the life of the person).

I spent some time trying to sort this out for myself based on web research (haven't yet read the books), and wrote up this 2-page summary (plus another page of table) for myself. Hopefully I got it mostly right. It might be interesting or helpful to others.

Generational Theory Summary.pdf

(85.81 KiB) Downloaded 56 times

After absorbing it and recognizing that it does seem to capture something that others had observed but not previously codified, what surprised me most was the relationship between the current active generations in their stages, and where we are in the 80 year cycle. The boomers are the post-Crisis (previous Crisis) "Prophet" generation. We are now in the next Crisis "Turning", and the Millennials are the next "Hero" generation who should pull us out of the Crisis - that if they are able to fulfill that. These are only norms, and that the norms do on occasion fail for one reason or another. I want to root for the Millennials, but in order to respond to the Crisis they need to listen to the Prophets for guidance. I'm not seeing that, yet.

(Thanks to TPTB for updating this forum to allow PDF attachments!)

[johnbrickner]

God Bless the Strategic Thinkers. Downloading now.

[bluejuice915]

"Millennials are the next "Hero" generation who should pull us out of the Crisis" ~ 68Camaro


Anyone else fearful about this?
Yes, that was shallow, but neither the Millennials or the border Gen-Z (that would be me) seem fit to fix all, if any the problems. I find most people under the age of thirty lack proper motivational skills and understanding of the world as a whole, not to mention terrible principles and taste in entertainment. If this is really what the theory says, we may need to adapt it like Leap Years (None in years ending in 00, except those divisible by 400), and call for an exception every 5 cycles or something like that. With any luck, we have enough time to get another more promising generation out before the SHTF, and have them be our saviors. Otherwise, we have the split chance of either the biggest lazy idiots or the most promising geniuses surviving. And on that happy note, farewell.

[68Camaro]

I think I expressed my concern. Though I'm still not without hope - as there are many members of the generation who are grounded (just not sure if the proportion is high enough).

And at this point no one is completely clear what the current "crisis" is (unfortunately we have a lot of things going on in the world). I express further concern that this crisis may actually be a multi-generational conflict - which if true might actually sort itself out when reality infects the Millennials with how life really is. (Or maybe it is the onset of globalism.) But the theory is only what should be, not what will be. I presume you read that part as well.

And before the older generations cast judgement on the millennials, if they are later judged to have failed to execute their duty, it is those older generations who failed them by not preparing them, who are (as a generation, not individuals) at fault.

[68Camaro]

As I continue to think about this idea, even if these guys did document a major normative rhythm that hadn't before been fully appreciated, there are I believe a) other often competing forces at work and b) (possibly) other rhythms at work besides this set. So, again, I don't see GT as determinative, but rather descriptive/explanatory.

[johnbrickner]

"Millennials are the next "Hero" generation who should pull us out of the Crisis" ~ 68Camaro


Anyone else fearful about this?
Yes, that was shallow, but neither the Millennials or the border Gen-Z (that would be me) seem fit to fix all, if any the problems. I find most people under the age of thirty lack proper motivational skills and understanding of the world as a whole, not to mention terrible principles and taste in entertainment. If this is really what the theory says, we may need to adapt it like Leap Years (None in years ending in 00, except those divisible by 400), and call for an exception every 5 cycles or something like that. With any luck, we have enough time to get another more promising generation out before the SHTF, and have them be our saviors. Otherwise, we have the split chance of either the biggest lazy idiots or the most promising geniuses surviving. And on that happy note, farewell.

WoW, that's my 17 yr old son talking? It may be time to pass on my prophecy robes, staff, and throwing bones on to the next generation.

<snip> And before the older generations cast judgement on the millennials, if they are later judged to have failed to execute their duty, it is those older generations who failed them by not preparing them, who are (as a generation, not individuals) at fault.

I'll hang on to them for a little while longer. This one IS a no brainer. WE HAVE FAILED THEM.

[spacemanX]

And before the older generations cast judgement on the millennials, if they are later judged to have failed to execute their duty, it is those older generations who failed them by not preparing them, who are (as a generation, not individuals) at fault.[/quote]

it is with a sad heart that I must agree with 68camaro. I have seen both great young people under 30, and those 'snowflakes' who are proving the failure of their parents. we need to mentor them, and teach reality.

[Rosco]

According to your data I'm of the Silent Generation but I'm far from Quiet

We need time to reflect on the results of the Generational Activity
The recent Election seems to be a major Stressor and could change the Expectations

[johnbrickner]

Reading thru the summary, I think I'm now ready to comment. That we are in the crisis stage is a no brainer. However, it is still unraveling. So we might actually be in a mix of unraveling and crisis stages. Especially, if what we are experiencing right now is longer than a generation in time experience.

The unraveling could coincide with the mid-70's whammies of: Arab oil embargo; Nixon taking the last link away to the U$D being pegged to gold; and the resultant stagflation recession of '73-'74. The recession of the early '80s and Great Recession of '08/'09 follow. If the great recession is the mark of the start of the "crisis" then we are looking a an additional half a generation of time added to the unraveling. One must ask the question "How long will the crisis last given the extended time the unraveling took?"

It all depends on what your view and time frame is for the current world crisis. For some, it's a view of we have a problem, we'll get over it, and times will be better after. Very similar to the cycles of economics, etc. So a shorter time frame from a few years, to according to the Generational Theory a couple of decades. What if our current issue isn't a short cycle problem but one of several generations?

I would contend we are in the stages of an Empire in decline. When you look at the timeline for Empires we are due. Further evidence includes the rise of the Chinese Empire that appears to be set to pass the U.S. in many measures of the same. I'll go out on a limb at this time and predict that as this reverse ratio continues (China up, U.S. down) our relationship with Russia (Putin) will improve. One might call it the two empires declined team up to counter the threat of the new emerging Empire.

Empires can take several decades or even a couple of centuries to decline. So a long-term strategic view may be required here if we are in this situation. Only time will tell.

Regarding the archetypes, I can only speak for my self as a later end boomer. I think many of every generation are self-absorbed. But, certainly to few of us became the young crusaders of individualism prophets to morph into the activists of morals and principles, and now become the sage elders to lead the "hero" generation to save us. I can see the movement that has started but it truly is in the budding stages. See my other writings on decentralization/devolution and the rise of the individual in the community and resultant region for more details.

Following along the time line, I feel for the Gen X-ers as they are predicted by the theory to become the elders living thru the next period of abundance. Best advice I have for them is don't buy into it. Your generation will continue to be given less opportunity, poor choices (i.e. the last presidential cycle,) and a lower standard of living compared to those before you. There is no rainbow in your golden years. Continue to forward the free cycle/(free/share) economy. Having something other than what we have always had will be needed when what we had is no longer available.

The Heroes, the millennials, I have my children and the young people I work with on a daily basis to reflect on. Overly protected? Many, yes. Team oriented optimists during crisis? Hummm, they are in crisis now. I can see "teams" of young people forming. Similar to surrounding your self with those you trust and are friends with. Perhaps your "click" while still in public school. Perhaps, that is exactly what I am seeing.

In my work, I am terribly poor at predicting how teams will do. It is with the individuals I excel. Much easier for me to see which individual will play in college or become a coach or leader than it is for me to say such and such a team will do well this year. Except by my judgement of the individual coach they have and their coaching/leadership skills. So again, it becomes my guess based on the individual coach not the team.

Optimists? Anything but. Except for a few exceptions. Often I find this group quite negative and often vicious towards each other. Much of what I see is a reflection of the dysfunction in the home. Or in the cases of the exceptions, a reflection of being taught awareness of the world. As a whole, I do not see the generation of millennials as optimistic. But, their will be small numbers of leaders that will rise to the top. We will see how well they will lead their peers in the future, if we are still around to watch.

The homeland generation, the ones being born now. All I can say is good luck. You are being passed a world I can only imagine what it will be like when you are an adult. Forgive us.

According to the article, generations can react differently by changes in the normal cycles of events. The event of Empire decline has not been seen by our generations until now. Those who study the decline of Empires suggest we might study the Soviet Union for a contemporary empire that went thru a recent decline and learn from it. Perhaps if we study the generations coming out of greater Russia we might get some insight on what to expect from ours.

The view from my eyes.