by johnbrickner » Mon Dec 19, 2016 10:12 am
Reading thru the summary, I think I'm now ready to comment. That we are in the crisis stage is a no brainer. However, it is still unraveling. So we might actually be in a mix of unraveling and crisis stages. Especially, if what we are experiencing right now is longer than a generation in time experience.
The unraveling could coincide with the mid-70's whammies of: Arab oil embargo; Nixon taking the last link away to the U$D being pegged to gold; and the resultant stagflation recession of '73-'74. The recession of the early '80s and Great Recession of '08/'09 follow. If the great recession is the mark of the start of the "crisis" then we are looking a an additional half a generation of time added to the unraveling. One must ask the question "How long will the crisis last given the extended time the unraveling took?"
It all depends on what your view and time frame is for the current world crisis. For some, it's a view of we have a problem, we'll get over it, and times will be better after. Very similar to the cycles of economics, etc. So a shorter time frame from a few years, to according to the Generational Theory a couple of decades. What if our current issue isn't a short cycle problem but one of several generations?
I would contend we are in the stages of an Empire in decline. When you look at the timeline for Empires we are due. Further evidence includes the rise of the Chinese Empire that appears to be set to pass the U.S. in many measures of the same. I'll go out on a limb at this time and predict that as this reverse ratio continues (China up, U.S. down) our relationship with Russia (Putin) will improve. One might call it the two empires declined team up to counter the threat of the new emerging Empire.
Empires can take several decades or even a couple of centuries to decline. So a long-term strategic view may be required here if we are in this situation. Only time will tell.
Regarding the archetypes, I can only speak for my self as a later end boomer. I think many of every generation are self-absorbed. But, certainly to few of us became the young crusaders of individualism prophets to morph into the activists of morals and principles, and now become the sage elders to lead the "hero" generation to save us. I can see the movement that has started but it truly is in the budding stages. See my other writings on decentralization/devolution and the rise of the individual in the community and resultant region for more details.
Following along the time line, I feel for the Gen X-ers as they are predicted by the theory to become the elders living thru the next period of abundance. Best advice I have for them is don't buy into it. Your generation will continue to be given less opportunity, poor choices (i.e. the last presidential cycle,) and a lower standard of living compared to those before you. There is no rainbow in your golden years. Continue to forward the free cycle/(free/share) economy. Having something other than what we have always had will be needed when what we had is no longer available.
The Heroes, the millennials, I have my children and the young people I work with on a daily basis to reflect on. Overly protected? Many, yes. Team oriented optimists during crisis? Hummm, they are in crisis now. I can see "teams" of young people forming. Similar to surrounding your self with those you trust and are friends with. Perhaps your "click" while still in public school. Perhaps, that is exactly what I am seeing.
In my work, I am terribly poor at predicting how teams will do. It is with the individuals I excel. Much easier for me to see which individual will play in college or become a coach or leader than it is for me to say such and such a team will do well this year. Except by my judgement of the individual coach they have and their coaching/leadership skills. So again, it becomes my guess based on the individual coach not the team.
Optimists? Anything but. Except for a few exceptions. Often I find this group quite negative and often vicious towards each other. Much of what I see is a reflection of the dysfunction in the home. Or in the cases of the exceptions, a reflection of being taught awareness of the world. As a whole, I do not see the generation of millennials as optimistic. But, their will be small numbers of leaders that will rise to the top. We will see how well they will lead their peers in the future, if we are still around to watch.
The homeland generation, the ones being born now. All I can say is good luck. You are being passed a world I can only imagine what it will be like when you are an adult. Forgive us.
According to the article, generations can react differently by changes in the normal cycles of events. The event of Empire decline has not been seen by our generations until now. Those who study the decline of Empires suggest we might study the Soviet Union for a contemporary empire that went thru a recent decline and learn from it. Perhaps if we study the generations coming out of greater Russia we might get some insight on what to expect from ours.
The view from my eyes.