Realcent.org

I'm not an economist and my luck in Vegas stinks, but something tells me this latest dip may set off a spike.

Now if I can only remember to hit or stand on 17 at the casino....

BOOOOO. lol. I was forced to sell some silver years ago for the downpayment on my current home. (one of the best things that ever happened to me, I freaking love this place) Once I had some cash again though I was eager to jump back in. I totally thought I nailed it!!! I bought a few buck under what I had sold at, and though I had considerably less to reinvest, I got nearly the silver I had previously sold back. I thought I did great! hehe.

I wont say I regret buying back in when I did. I still did ok, but looking at prices now Im totally jealous of you guys with "dry powder".

Further, I used to think I kinda half understood the forces that drive markets.... uh, now Im utterly and totally baffled. The market seems to live in a self created reality or something.

Who knows, regardless of a spike I wouldnt be selling I'd be holding what I got. Right now I'm enjoying the "discount".

History will probably show me to be wrong as it often does, but I do not think we are through the woods yet. Technicals don't really matter.

When looking at things like total market leverage and debt saturation, we are in worse position than we were prior to the 2008 crash which should have caused people to wise up, but QE afforded the luxury of repeating the same mistakes.

Stocks and bonds have yet to take a hit since then. If and when they do, metals are typically the bellwhether since the less essential paper positions are unwound first to cover the more essential.

The Fed may still be tapering, but China is not. Their QE dwarves ours. They are printing up tons of money, buying our zero % interest debt, repackaging it for a higher interest rate, taking the arbitrage and shorting paper commodities so they can buy physical commodities for a better deal.

The last few months however, they've slowed their physical gold purchases after many years of continually growing imports.

If they are approaching the amount of gold they are willing to buy at these prices, then they may also be approaching a time where they do not need to short it, in which case they will not need our ZIRP as a means to their ends, in which case the Fed will have one less person at the party drinking their punch, someone who happens to drink a lot of it currently.

Whether that is occurring now or not, I feel it is an eventuality of their plan to acquire physical commodities in preparation for a global economy no longer dominated by the USD. Meetings taking place in China this week with Putin seem to indicate that process is accelerating.

If and when this reaches fruition the Fed will either have to go with massive QE to meet the shortfall, or else concede to default on US debt obligations. China holds the cards (see golden rule). I do not know whether it is in their longterm interests to enable us or not, but as a Russian ally I would imagine they are only doing so as long as it benefits them in some way.

Whether due to this or by other means, if the USD is not the world reserve currency we will no longer be in a position to export our debt to nations that are no longer using dollars to transact with, and the inflation genie will come home to roost on QE at that point. This is the point where I would see metals returning to prominence.

Until then, or until the current exchanges are no longer in charge, the paper price can be anything. Maybe the exchanges will let the price rise back to $30 or $40 to bring more to market in the meantime. I don't know what their price target is.

P.S.
Stand at 17. Let the dealer bust Unless you have a sense for how many face cards have come and gone...

Very close to breaking support. This may be the last chance to jump ship. It's that time of year...

Looks like a new low for silver today. Gold is still relatively strong to silver and not at its low sub-$1200 level.

Catiwompt GSR = 71.5

The higher the gsr from this point the better the deal on silver. Not sure how long they can push down but it won't be forever. Much lower for much longer and they will be putting some miners out of business for lack of cash flow. But maybe someone is doing that on purpose to scoop up some properties. This isn't just about the mined silver; it's the also about the properties that are mortgaged to the price.

Seems to be all about the $USD strength to me. Right now USD is King. However, we've seen run-ups like this before. Usually, the other countries start complaining, US companies start complaining, and then the G-x gets together in some sort of a meeting in Switzerland, and the currency that is too high gets readjusted.

Definitely looks like capitulation in SILVER. GOLD seems to have buyers; perhaps many sovereigns are taking advantage of the downturn.

I'm still holding for $12 and $850 but since the GSR is so high I think I might just start buying again. I've only bought a few oz's this summer. Been waiting.

Anyone remember where I posted my $13 prediction. I'd love to review it and re-eval my thoughts.

Not to sound cliche, but if it drops below 14 relatively soon my wife and I decided to back up the truck.

Treetop wrote:Not to sound cliche, but if it drops below 14 relatively soon my wife and I decided to back up the truck.

And if it gets down to $10, sell the truck and buy silver!

brian0918 wrote:

Treetop wrote:Not to sound cliche, but if it drops below 14 relatively soon my wife and I decided to back up the truck.

And if it gets down to $10, sell the truck and buy silver!

Rodebaugh wrote:Anyone remember where I posted my $13 prediction. I'd love to review it and re-eval my thoughts.

page 16 of this thread

june 27 of '13

its fun to read thru members thoughts from that time - although I had forgotten about all the bickering in this thread

Rodebaugh wrote:

brian0918 wrote:

Treetop wrote:Not to sound cliche, but if it drops below 14 relatively soon my wife and I decided to back up the truck.

And if it gets down to $10, sell the truck and buy silver!

If it hits $5, the wife is going up on the auction block too. She's a looker, and a hell of a cook, but man, five bucks...

If it goes to $5, I might post something like "WTT me myself for junk silver". In other words something old and unwanted for something else old and unwanted.

rexmerdinus wrote:If it hits $5, the wife is going up on the auction block too. She's a looker, and a hell of a cook, but man, five bucks...

If she'd rather be a girlfriend than a wife, I'll bid a little higher.

Engineer wrote:

rexmerdinus wrote:If it hits $5, the wife is going up on the auction block too. She's a looker, and a hell of a cook, but man, five bucks...

If she'd rather be a girlfriend than a wife, I'll bid a little higher.

And if she isn't looking for a live in situation, I'll go 1.5 higher than Engineer.

I was going to bid, but then I realized it said looker

I want to see a list of dishes she is skilled at cooking before I bid.

my biggest problem... who is gonna be selling at $13???? It's hard enough finding it at spot NOW

-The Great

CLINT-THE-GREAT wrote:my biggest problem... who is gonna be selling at $13???? It's hard enough finding it at spot NOW

-The Great

At $13 spot there will still be dealers asking 13 x face for 90% junk silver or $17 each for American Silver Eagles. Sad for them and for us.

CLINT-THE-GREAT wrote:my biggest problem... who is gonna be selling at $13???? It's hard enough finding it at spot NOW

-The Great

The premiums on private mint .999 are as low as I can remember in recent times. 90% traded at a discount before the subprime extravaganza......it will again.

Keep regular buying....but save your extra powder.

Recyclersteve wrote:

CLINT-THE-GREAT wrote:my biggest problem... who is gonna be selling at $13???? It's hard enough finding it at spot NOW

-The Great

At $13 spot there will still be dealers asking 13 x face for 90% junk silver or $17 each for American Silver Eagles. Sad for them and for us.

We've had this discussion numerous times, but in a free market there is eventually accurate price discovery and I do not bemoan anyone selling for whatever they can get. If a LCS can get $17 for ASEs when spot (which is based on theoretical paper silver in 1000 oz increments) is $13, then more power to them. If that's too high of a price, the price will come down. If it's not high enough, the price will go up. The reason the paper silver futures market is driving price is the major physical players use those paper exchanges (in the absence of any better alternative) for hedging, and hedging is an important function that allows for improved price stability and reduced risk. When the paper exchanges fold physical price discovery will eventually become more accurate, but for a time there will likely be a loss of stability with greater risk and a tendency toward wider price swings.

Recyclersteve wrote:

CLINT-THE-GREAT wrote:my biggest problem... who is gonna be selling at $13???? It's hard enough finding it at spot NOW

-The Great

At $13 spot there will still be dealers asking 13 x face for 90% junk silver or $17 each for American Silver Eagles. Sad for them and for us.

I agree 100%.

When silver was in the $30's, many people said availability would be gone if Ag dropped below $20. Of course we know that was incorrect because there was still plenty available and plenty of sellers.

They only thing that could cause a problem is if Ag drops a dollar or two very quickly... premiums would sky (like they did during the 2008 dump). If Ag continues this slow grind down to $15, they'll be plenty of sellers and availability. Premiums will rise, but stay within reasonable levels.