An Analysis of Social Security

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An Analysis of Social Security

Postby Recyclersteve » Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:18 am

Social Security (SS) is such an incredibly complicated subject when you really get into the details, so I am looking for a few good websites that really get into the nitty gritty about it with FAQ's, etc. FYI- I don't consider ssa.gov to be up to the standards that I am looking for.

Let me give a bit more info.

1) My understanding is that SS payments are based on the Top 35 earnings figures for your last 40 years of earnings.

2) I've heard that there is a household (HH) cap on the amount that can be paid to a single HH. For instance, if the wife and husband each would qualify for say, $2,500/month, combined they could be subject to a maximum amount of something like, say, only $3,500. This HH max could be WAY LOWER than what they would get if they were in two separate HH's.

3) Also, the conventional wisdom is that if you put off filing for SS you get an additional payout of something like 8% a year, which is nothing to sneeze at. Of course, the govt. would love to see everyone put it off- postponing their obligation as long as possible. But if you are already over the max cap (even at age 62), wouldn't it make more sense to start taking it now. The additional 8% a year won't do any good if you are already over the max payable amount for a HH.

4) I've heard that husband and wife shouldn't begin taking SS the same year. Anyone have an easy to understand explanation as to why that is true?

I've used Bing and Google to look for SS info, but have been very disappointed with what I've found so far. Any ideas or commentary would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.

P.S. To anyone who asks me to seek out the advice of a paid financial consultant, I feel that the information is out there on the web for me to be successful in researching the subject. Also, with almost 20 years experience in the financial industry, I've found that some so-called experts know less than I do.
Former stock broker w/ ~20 yrs. at one company. Spoke with 100k+ people and traded a lot (long, short, options, margin, extended hours, etc.).

Please note that ANY stocks I discuss, no matter how compelling, carry risk- sometimes substantial. If not prepared to buy it multiple times in modest amounts without going overboard (assuming nothing really wrong with the company), you need to learn more about the market and managing risk. Also, please research covered calls (options) as well.
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Re: An Analysis of Social Security

Postby GTOJohn » Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:27 am

For a decent free calculator - check out Michael Piper's - opensocialsecurity.com

Also - there is a ton of information on forums such as Bogleheads and early-retirement

But, as you said, there is a ton of info online (both good and bad). Though, I'm not a fan of Bing & Google. I'm a user of duckduckgo
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Re: An Analysis of Social Security

Postby henrysmedford » Sat Dec 22, 2018 9:08 am

It even gets more complicated when you have an an adult disabled child that you need to worry about. My son will be receiving part of my Social Security for the rest of his life and things can go on for years. There is a woman still receiving Civil War compensation off of her father’s benefit.See https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-08-08/civil-war-vets-pension-still-remains-on-governments-payroll-151-years-after-last-shot-fired%3fcontext=amp
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Re: An Analysis of Social Security

Postby NotABigDeal » Sat Dec 22, 2018 9:40 am

Here's my analysis.

File the absolute first day you can. Don't wait. Don't depend on it.

The government takes my money and gives it to someone else. They then tell me that I can expect to NOT receive my full amount as it won't be there. I think I can expect somewhere in the 70 percentile range of what my payment should be. If I could sign away the governments responsibly (responsa-what?) to support me and keep my money, I'd sign today. Hell, putting the money under the mattress doesn't cost a thing, and definitely doesn't cost me +20% off the top....

Like most every government ran program, massive failure.

My wife and I do not count on "expected" social security in our retirement plans. Whatever we come by way of that "benefit" will just be extra. We do not depend/expect/plan on getting our money back.

Deal

p.s. What about people like my dad who died at 52, unmarried and obviously never drawing a dime? As his only heir I feel like some of that should be mine. How about a third....
I plead the 2nd....

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Re: An Analysis of Social Security

Postby 68Camaro » Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:57 am

Good topic and thanks for the info.
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Re: An Analysis of Social Security

Postby bankmining » Sat Dec 22, 2018 2:31 pm

Know your family’s health and life expectancies. For me, nearly all of my male relatives going back a couple of generations have passed in their 60’s, a few in their 50’s, and only 2 that I was able to research made it past 68. My dad collected one month of SS before he died at 65. I plan to draw early - for my age group I think it’s 62 or 63 even though it’s a reduced amount because I want to get at least some of it back while I can. Also, as previously mentioned, I’ll consider it a bonus to my other preparations.
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Re: An Analysis of Social Security

Postby Recyclersteve » Wed Dec 26, 2018 2:05 am

NotABigDeal wrote: My wife and I do not count on "expected" social security in our retirement plans. Whatever we come by way of that "benefit" will just be extra. We do not depend/expect/plan on getting our money back.



This is where it gets sticky. If too many people truly have that attitude, then you have just made the government's job that much easier. They know they can take away future benefits from people and they won't have a revolt on their hands. That could be a huge relief to them.

So I guess I don't believe I will actually get everything I should. But I plan on being ONE IRATE PO'ED SOB complaining about it and trying to come up with a better way when the Social Security SHTF. Of course, if I'm really old and have Alzheimer's I may not give a rip.

I'm not talking about doing anything violent, by the way.
Former stock broker w/ ~20 yrs. at one company. Spoke with 100k+ people and traded a lot (long, short, options, margin, extended hours, etc.).

Please note that ANY stocks I discuss, no matter how compelling, carry risk- sometimes substantial. If not prepared to buy it multiple times in modest amounts without going overboard (assuming nothing really wrong with the company), you need to learn more about the market and managing risk. Also, please research covered calls (options) as well.
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Re: An Analysis of Social Security

Postby NotABigDeal » Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:01 am

And what would you like me to do? I never said I wouldn't be pissed. Because I am. Flat out theft. You mentioned revolt. What exactly do you mean by that? You don't think the government knows people are pissed? When did the government start to care?

I should get my money owed to me, but I don't count on it. No point in planning on having it.

Deal
I plead the 2nd....

Control your kids and your crazy ass relatives, leave my guns alone.

TTS 10/30/60-10/25/13 Dad.
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Re: An Analysis of Social Security

Postby Rosco » Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:13 am

I retired in 1999 at 62 an 3 months Still perking along Now spending more than My RMD plus SS an small pensions, But slowing Down at 81-86 and glad We took Trips and Cruises when we did, We have great memories. :wave: :clap:
Rarely Hand Sorts ....Hope that the Hoard goes to the Boys
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Re: An Analysis of Social Security

Postby Recyclersteve » Fri Dec 28, 2018 12:00 pm

Another factor that hasn't been covered is this- what about someone who wants to take SS at age 62 or higher and also work at the same time? I remember hearing that there is some factor used which reduces SS benefits if you are still working.

In terms of family history, my dad, who many people say I resemble (especially our voices) is age 93 and in amazing shape. Works out every day, does lots of charity work, sings in the choir and lectors at mass, and still has a girlfriend. Sure I'm biased, but I look at him and figure that he looks like he's in his early to mid-70's. My siblings and I have been talking to him about living to age 100. He used to think that was a really big, unattainable goal. Now he's really believing he's got a shot.
Former stock broker w/ ~20 yrs. at one company. Spoke with 100k+ people and traded a lot (long, short, options, margin, extended hours, etc.).

Please note that ANY stocks I discuss, no matter how compelling, carry risk- sometimes substantial. If not prepared to buy it multiple times in modest amounts without going overboard (assuming nothing really wrong with the company), you need to learn more about the market and managing risk. Also, please research covered calls (options) as well.
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